Tim’s take:
Every year the same thing happens: the first winter barley yields land in early July, somebody declares the harvest a triumph or a disaster, and by September the national average has quietly settled somewhere that makes the July verdict look silly. The early figures below are worth reading, but read them for what they are, single farms on particular land in a particular corner of England.
The number I would actually anchor on this year is not a 2026 figure at all. It is 7.6 t/ha, last year’s final GB wheat average. Every yield claim you hear between now and September is really a claim about which side of that line the season falls, and after a spring this dry, the honest answer is that the crops on strong moisture-holding land will decide it in August.
Oilseed rape has settled that argument. The area was up 30%, the condition scores were the best of anything in the ground, and the crop came in at 4.0 t/ha, 19% above its five-year average, on the biggest area since 2023. On 316,000 hectares that points to comfortably over a million tonnes, the first time in several seasons. In a harvest this poor it is the one crop that repaid the decision to grow it, and it is the quiet story of 2026.
This page follows the yield story of harvest 2026: what the combines are actually finding, crop by crop, measured against last year’s averages, and when the official numbers arrive. It sits alongside our UK harvest 2026 progress report, which tracks how much has been cut; this one is about what it is yielding.
A way through this story
The yardstick: 2025 final yields
A yield figure means nothing without a baseline. AHDB’s closing 2025 GB harvest report put the final averages at wheat 7.6 t/ha, winter barley 6.7 t/ha, spring barley 5.8 t/ha, winter oilseed rape 3.7 t/ha and oats 5.2 t/ha. Every 2026 number on this page should be read against those lines.
The third report: wheat 12% down, spring barley claws some back
AHDB’s third harvest report, published on 28 August with data to 24 August, is the first of the season where the numbers moved in the growers’ favour. Wheat is averaging 6.8 t/ha with 94% of the crop cut, 12% below the UK five-year average rather than 13%. Spring barley has recovered most: 4.6 t/ha across 80% of the crop, 19% below the five-year line against 29% a fortnight earlier. Oats are 4.4 t/ha, 17% down rather than 21%. Winter oilseed rape finished the season at 4.0 t/ha, 19% above its five-year average, and winter barley closed broadly in line with its.
The improvement is geographic, not a re-reading of ground already cut. Harvest has moved into Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England, where crops caught more rain and are yielding better, and those farms are pulling the running averages up as they come off. Scotland had 54% of its spring barley in by 24 August, its fastest since 2022. With roughly a fifth of the spring barley and a twentieth of the wheat still standing, the final averages can move again, most likely in the same direction and not by much.
What has not improved is the spread. “The differences we are seeing between farms are significant,” said Helen Plant, AHDB’s lead cereals and oilseeds analyst, and AHDB is holding back national production estimates until that variability narrows. Quality is described as highly variable too, which is a storage problem as much as a marketing one: a mixed heap off a heat-stressed crop needs sampling and monitoring rather than assumptions. For anyone reading a national average and wondering why it does not match the weighbridge, this is the report that says the average is not the point this year. AHDB’s final report is due on 25 September.
The second report: wheat holds at 13% down, spring barley 29%
AHDB’s second harvest report, published on 14 August with data to 10 August, firmed the picture up rather than changing it. Wheat is averaging 6.7 t/ha with 85% of the crop cut, still 13% below the UK five-year average and a shade under the first report’s 6.8. Winter barley closed its season at 6.8 t/ha, level with the five-year line on a spread of 4.4 to 11.0, and winter oilseed rape held 3.9 t/ha, now put at 18% above its benchmark with 95% cut.
The new entry on the wrong side of the ledger is spring barley. With 54% of the crop cut, the survey average is 4.1 t/ha, 29% below the UK five-year average and 25% below the English one, on reported yields of 2.2 to 7.6 t/ha. The report is careful with it: Scotland had cut just 2% by 10 August and the anecdotal word there is better than in the South, so the average could still move. Oats slipped from 4.9 to 4.2 t/ha, 21% under the five-year line, as more spring oats came off in the South of England.
Wheat quality is holding as the crop shrinks: specific weights averaging 82 kg/hl, Hagbergs averaging 365, well clear of milling specification, and protein around 13.5% with samples up to 15.5% reported. Rape oil content is averaging 44%. The watch item now is moisture as combining moves into Scotland and the North, with barley samples reported up to 19%.
What the survey yields add up to became clearer the same day. ECIU’s reading of the second report cut its forecast for the UK cereals and oilseeds crop to 18.5 million tonnes, a million below its early-August estimate and 1.35 million tonnes under 2020, the previous record low. If the last two reports confirm it, 2026 is the smallest harvest since detailed records began in 1984, worth around £550m less than March forecasts implied.
The first official figures: wheat down 13%, rape up 17%
AHDB’s first harvest report of 2026, published on 31 July with data to 27 July, put the season’s first official yield indications on the table. Wheat is averaging 6.8 t/ha, down 13% on the UK five-year average. Winter barley, with 95% of the crop cut, finished at 6.8 t/ha, down 2%. Winter oilseed rape is the standout at 3.9 t/ha, up 17% on the five-year line. Spring barley’s early 5.3 t/ha comes from just 8% of the crop and oats’ 4.9 t/ha from 32%, so treat both as first sketches. The data comes from a 60-farm survey run for AHDB by The Andersons Centre, and this is the first of four reports this season rather than a weekly series.
The spread underneath those averages is the real story. Reported wheat yields ran from 3.9 to 11.5 t/ha, winter barley from 3.4 to 11.0, rape from 2.4 to 4.9, and only 10% of the wheat farms surveyed beat their own five-year average. The report’s list of what separated farms reads like a map of the dry season: soil type and moisture retention, drilling date, organic manures, cropping history and variety choice.
Quality is carrying the wheat story. Specific weights of 76 to 85 kg/hl with most samples at 82 or better, Hagbergs well clear of milling specification and protein averaging around 13.5% add up to a smaller crop with a strong sample, which is the combination that makes milling premiums count. Rape oil contents of 42 to 45% are respectable too. One footnote on baselines: AHDB benchmarks these figures against Defra-based UK averages (its table has 2025 wheat at 7.2 t/ha on that basis), a slightly different measure from the GB harvest-report finals in the yardstick section above. The direction of travel is the same on either ruler.
What the combines have found so far
The season opened remarkably early in the east, and the first results are better than the dry spring gave anyone the right to expect. Farmers Weekly reported Elveden Farms, on the Norfolk-Suffolk border, taking 6 to 8.5 t/ha off Buccaneer winter malting barley from 26 June, the top end of that on irrigated land. “8.5t/ha is exceptional for us, given the season,” managing director Andrew Blenkiron told the magazine. PX Farms in Cambridgeshire averaged 7.2 t/ha across its first field from 29 June, against a 2025 GB winter barley average of 6.7 t/ha.
Two caveats before anyone extrapolates. The earliest-cut fields are a biased sample: irrigated estates and light-land crops that raced to ripeness under drought stress, which can flatter or flatten a figure depending on the field. And moisture has been extraordinarily low, down to 9% in that first Elveden barley, so some of what looks like a modest weighbridge total is simply water the crop never carried.
Wheat: the August question
Wheat is where harvest 2026 will be won or lost, with 1,675,000 hectares in the ground, the largest area of any crop and up 1% on last year according to AHDB’s Early Bird Survey. The condition picture going in was strained: AHDB’s crop condition report with data to 22 June had 58% of GB winter wheat good or excellent, down from 64% a month earlier after the dry April and May, with England carrying the worst of the stress. What the smaller crop means for the price is its own question; our UK wheat prices guide tracks feed wheat values and milling premiums as the harvest picture firms up.
The earliest field expectations are consistent with that: Hectare’s 6 July harvest report quotes an Essex grower expecting around 8 t/ha from early Skyfall, with drought the stated cap on anything higher. Cutting on the earliest southern wheat was expected from mid-July, but the fields that set the national average are the ones on stronger land that come off through August. Until they move, treat every wheat yield claim as provisional.
Barley: a small crop, so yield matters double
The barley story of 2026 was set before a combine moved: 963,000 hectares in total, the smallest GB barley area since 2010, split 356,000 hectares of winter barley (down 2%) and 610,000 of spring (down 15%). A small area means the national tonnage is unusually sensitive to yield, and it is why the early winter barley results above, sitting around or better than last year’s 6.7 t/ha, matter beyond the farms that cut them. Spring barley, rated just 55% good or excellent in late June and largely grown for malting, is the crop where the quality columns, germination and grain nitrogen, will count for as much as the tonnage.
Oilseed rape: the comeback crop
Oilseed rape goes into harvest 2026 with the best setup of anything in the ground: area up 30% to 316,000 hectares, the largest since 2023, and 80% of the crop rated good or excellent in late June, the highest condition score of any crop. The trade’s expectations were set out in Farmers Weekly in May: Premium Crops forecast 3 to 3.5 t/ha with an outside chance of nearer 4, and United Oilseeds set the bar at beating the five-year average of 3.3 t/ha. Repeat last year’s 3.7 t/ha across the bigger area and UK production comes out just over a million tonnes.
Cutting started in Cambridgeshire in the last days of June, so the first meaningful rape yield reports should arrive through late July. For import-dependent crushers, and for anyone deciding whether the crop earns its place in the rotation again, this is the harvest that resets the argument.
Worth holding in mind alongside the field results: this is shaping up as an early season across Europe, not just here. AHDB’s arable market report of 6 July had 83% of the French winter barley crop cut by 29 June against a five-year average of 39%, and put new-crop feed wheat futures for November at £177.75 per tonne. A big, early European harvest is part of why the market is not paying much for urgency, whatever the weighbridge says.
Oats: the quiet contraction
Oats went in on 170,000 hectares, down 14% on last year. Against a 2025 average of 5.2 t/ha, a smaller area again puts the weight on yield, and on the milling sample: like malting barley, the gap between milling and feed money is where an oat grower’s season is decided.
Where the official numbers come from, and when
Three sources will settle what harvest 2026 actually yielded, in order of arrival. First, AHDB’s GB harvest progress reports, four editions this season rather than a weekly run, carrying yield indications alongside the cutting percentages through to late September; the 2026 editions were published on 31 July, 14 August and 28 August, with the last planned for 25 September. Second, AHDB’s Recommended List harvest results, trial-plot yields published crop by crop as each trial is cut, useful for variety comparisons rather than farm averages. Third, the official statistics: Defra’s provisional cereal and oilseed production estimates for England are scheduled for October 2026, with regional breakdowns.
We update this page as each wave lands. For the week-by-week cutting pace, keep the progress report open next to this one; for what the yields mean at the weighbridge and in the shed, our guide to UK farm prices in 2026 covers the selling side. The next job after the combine is drilling: our winter wheat drilling dates and seed rate guide covers when to drill and how thick for the season ahead.
Update log
3 September 2026: third AHDB report added, data to 24 August: wheat 6.8 t/ha and 12% down, spring barley 4.6 t/ha and 19% down rather than 29%, oats 4.4 t/ha and 17% down, oilseed rape finished at 4.0 t/ha and 19% up. Northern crops are lifting the running averages. FAQs refreshed; one report remains, due 25 September.
19 August 2026: ECIU’s 14 August analysis added to the second-report section: the survey yields imply an 18.5 million tonne cereals and oilseeds crop, the smallest since detailed records began in 1984 and around £550m down on March forecasts. AHDB survey figures unchanged.
16 August 2026: second AHDB report added, data to 10 August: wheat 6.7 t/ha and still 13% down, spring barley 4.1 t/ha and 29% down, oilseed rape confirmed at 3.9 t/ha, up 18%. FAQs refreshed; two reports remain, due 28 August and 25 September.
31 July 2026: first official AHDB figures added, week ending 27 July: wheat 6.8 t/ha and down 13%, winter barley 6.8 t/ha, oilseed rape 3.9 t/ha and up 17%. FAQs and sources updated; AHDB is publishing four reports this season rather than weekly.
12 July 2026: page created. Early farm-level winter barley results and pre-season expectations in place, against 2025 final averages. Next update when AHDB’s first weekly progress report of 2026 lands with the season’s first official yield indications.
Frequently Asked Questions
What yields are expected for UK harvest 2026?
AHDB’s third report, published 28 August with data to 24 August, puts wheat at 6.8 t/ha, down 12% on the UK five-year average, winter oilseed rape at 4.0 t/ha, up 19%, spring barley at 4.6 t/ha, down 19%, and oats at 4.4 t/ha, down 17%. Winter barley finished broadly in line with its five-year average. Underneath the averages the farm-to-farm spread is wide: wheat has ranged from 3.9 to 11.5 t/ha and spring barley from 2.2 to 7.6.
Are 2026 yields down on last year?
Wheat is: 6.8 t/ha against last year’s 7.6 GB final, and 12% below the UK five-year benchmark, though quality is strong. Spring barley is down 19% and oats 17% on their five-year averages, both recovered from worse positions as harvest moved north. Winter barley finished level with its recent norm and oilseed rape closed 19% up. The last of the northern crop, and AHDB’s final report on 25 September, will settle the figures.
What was the average UK wheat yield in 2025?
AHDB’s final 2025 harvest report put the GB average wheat yield at 7.6 t/ha. Winter barley averaged 6.7 t/ha, spring barley 5.8 t/ha, winter oilseed rape 3.7 t/ha and oats 5.2 t/ha.
When will official harvest 2026 yield figures be published?
In three waves: AHDB’s GB harvest progress reports, four editions this season, published on 31 July, 14 August and 28 August with the final one due 25 September; AHDB’s Recommended List trial results, published crop by crop as trials are cut; and Defra’s provisional cereal and oilseed production estimates for England, scheduled for October 2026. AHDB is withholding national production estimates until the farm-to-farm variability narrows.
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Source: AHDB
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