Tim’s take:
Every year the same thing happens: the first winter barley yields land in early July, somebody declares the harvest a triumph or a disaster, and by September the national average has quietly settled somewhere that makes the July verdict look silly. The early figures below are worth reading, but read them for what they are, single farms on particular land in a particular corner of England.
The number I would actually anchor on this year is not a 2026 figure at all. It is 7.6 t/ha, last year’s final GB wheat average. Every yield claim you hear between now and September is really a claim about which side of that line the season falls, and after a spring this dry, the honest answer is that the crops on strong moisture-holding land will decide it in August.
And keep one eye on oilseed rape. The area is up 30%, the condition scores are the best of anything in the ground, and if the yield forecasts hold, the UK is heading back above a million tonnes for the first time in a few seasons. That is the quiet story of harvest 2026.
This page follows the yield story of harvest 2026: what the combines are actually finding, crop by crop, measured against last year’s averages, and when the official numbers arrive. It sits alongside our weekly harvest progress report, which tracks how much has been cut; this one is about what it is yielding.
The yardstick: 2025 final yields
A yield figure means nothing without a baseline. AHDB’s closing 2025 GB harvest report put the final averages at wheat 7.6 t/ha, winter barley 6.7 t/ha, spring barley 5.8 t/ha, winter oilseed rape 3.7 t/ha and oats 5.2 t/ha. Every 2026 number on this page should be read against those lines.
What the combines have found so far
The season opened remarkably early in the east, and the first results are better than the dry spring gave anyone the right to expect. Farmers Weekly reported Elveden Farms, on the Norfolk-Suffolk border, taking 6 to 8.5 t/ha off Buccaneer winter malting barley from 26 June, the top end of that on irrigated land. “8.5t/ha is exceptional for us, given the season,” managing director Andrew Blenkiron told the magazine. PX Farms in Cambridgeshire averaged 7.2 t/ha across its first field from 29 June, against a 2025 GB winter barley average of 6.7 t/ha.
Two caveats before anyone extrapolates. The earliest-cut fields are a biased sample: irrigated estates and light-land crops that raced to ripeness under drought stress, which can flatter or flatten a figure depending on the field. And moisture has been extraordinarily low, down to 9% in that first Elveden barley, so some of what looks like a modest weighbridge total is simply water the crop never carried.
Wheat: the August question
Wheat is where harvest 2026 will be won or lost, with 1,675,000 hectares in the ground, the largest area of any crop and up 1% on last year according to AHDB’s Early Bird Survey. The condition picture going in was strained: AHDB’s crop condition report with data to 22 June had 58% of GB winter wheat good or excellent, down from 64% a month earlier after the dry April and May, with England carrying the worst of the stress.
The earliest field expectations are consistent with that: Hectare’s 6 July harvest report quotes an Essex grower expecting around 8 t/ha from early Skyfall, with drought the stated cap on anything higher. Cutting on the earliest southern wheat was expected from mid-July, but the fields that set the national average are the ones on stronger land that come off through August. Until they move, treat every wheat yield claim as provisional.
Barley: a small crop, so yield matters double
The barley story of 2026 was set before a combine moved: 963,000 hectares in total, the smallest GB barley area since 2010, split 356,000 hectares of winter barley (down 2%) and 610,000 of spring (down 15%). A small area means the national tonnage is unusually sensitive to yield, and it is why the early winter barley results above, sitting around or better than last year’s 6.7 t/ha, matter beyond the farms that cut them. Spring barley, rated just 55% good or excellent in late June and largely grown for malting, is the crop where the quality columns, germination and grain nitrogen, will count for as much as the tonnage.
Oilseed rape: the comeback crop
Oilseed rape goes into harvest 2026 with the best setup of anything in the ground: area up 30% to 316,000 hectares, the largest since 2023, and 80% of the crop rated good or excellent in late June, the highest condition score of any crop. The trade’s expectations were set out in Farmers Weekly in May: Premium Crops forecast 3 to 3.5 t/ha with an outside chance of nearer 4, and United Oilseeds set the bar at beating the five-year average of 3.3 t/ha. Repeat last year’s 3.7 t/ha across the bigger area and UK production comes out just over a million tonnes.
Cutting started in Cambridgeshire in the last days of June, so the first meaningful rape yield reports should arrive through late July. For import-dependent crushers, and for anyone deciding whether the crop earns its place in the rotation again, this is the harvest that resets the argument.
Worth holding in mind alongside the field results: this is shaping up as an early season across Europe, not just here. AHDB’s arable market report of 6 July had 83% of the French winter barley crop cut by 29 June against a five-year average of 39%, and put new-crop feed wheat futures for November at £177.75 per tonne. A big, early European harvest is part of why the market is not paying much for urgency, whatever the weighbridge says.
Oats: the quiet contraction
Oats went in on 170,000 hectares, down 14% on last year. Against a 2025 average of 5.2 t/ha, a smaller area again puts the weight on yield, and on the milling sample: like malting barley, the gap between milling and feed money is where an oat grower’s season is decided.
Where the official numbers come from, and when
Three sources will settle what harvest 2026 actually yielded, in order of arrival. First, AHDB’s weekly GB harvest progress reports, which carry running yield indications alongside the cutting percentages from mid-July to late September; as of 12 July the first 2026 edition had not yet been published. Second, AHDB’s Recommended List harvest results, trial-plot yields published crop by crop as each trial is cut, useful for variety comparisons rather than farm averages. Third, the official statistics: Defra’s provisional cereal and oilseed production estimates for England are scheduled for October 2026, with regional breakdowns.
We update this page as each wave lands. For the week-by-week cutting pace, keep the progress report open next to this one; for what the yields mean at the weighbridge and in the shed, our guide to UK farm prices in 2026 covers the selling side.
Update log
12 July 2026: page created. Early farm-level winter barley results and pre-season expectations in place, against 2025 final averages. Next update when AHDB’s first weekly progress report of 2026 lands with the season’s first official yield indications.
Frequently Asked Questions
What yields are expected for UK harvest 2026?
No official 2026 yield figures exist yet. The benchmark is 2025: a GB average wheat yield of 7.6 t/ha, with last year’s full crop-by-crop averages set out in the yardstick section of this page. After a dry spring cut crop condition scores, the open question is whether 2026 lands above or below those lines; the first farm-level winter barley results, 6 to 8.5 t/ha in the east, sit around last year’s average.
Are 2026 yields down on last year?
It is too early to say. The dry April and May pulled GB winter wheat condition down to 58% good or excellent by late June, which points to pressure on light land, but the earliest farm reports of winter barley, 6 to 8.5 t/ha, are around or above the 2025 average of 6.7 t/ha. The national verdict depends on the main August wheat cut.
What was the average UK wheat yield in 2025?
AHDB’s final 2025 harvest report put the GB average wheat yield at 7.6 t/ha. Winter barley averaged 6.7 t/ha, spring barley 5.8 t/ha, winter oilseed rape 3.7 t/ha and oats 5.2 t/ha.
When will official harvest 2026 yield figures be published?
In three waves: AHDB’s weekly GB harvest progress reports carry early yield indications from mid-July through September; AHDB’s Recommended List trial results are published crop by crop as trials are cut; and Defra’s provisional cereal and oilseed production estimates for England are scheduled for October 2026.
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Source: AHDB
