A fresh warning from the National Preparedness Commission has laid bare the UK’s alarming dependence on. Learn about fertiliser shocks for UK farmers.
Fertiliser vulnerability exposed
A fresh warning from the National Preparedness Commission has laid bare the UK’s alarming dependence on imported fertilisers, with geopolitical upheaval exposing how quickly British farming can be pushed onto the back foot. Here’s what fertiliser shocks means in practice. The report, The Strategic Geography of Fertilisers: Implications for UK Preparedness, authored by Antony So and Professor Tim Lang of the Centre for Food Policy at City, University of London, identifies three critical pressure points: uneven global supply, corporate concentration in the industry, and reliance on vulnerable maritime chokepoints.
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year sent fertiliser prices spiralling within hours, illustrating the hair-trigger sensitivity of supply routes that UK agriculture cannot do without. The Strait remains one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes, handling vast quantities of energy products that fertiliser production depends on. The report makes clear that UK farming imports more than three times the amount of fertiliser it produces domestically, leaving the sector structurally exposed in a way that no amount of farm-gate bravado can mask.
The picture is compounded by concentration in the global industry itself. A handful of companies effectively control production, with policymakers describing parts of the market as a “duopoly” — meaning these firms wield enormous power over both supply and price. Add to that the fact that phosphorus and potassium supplies come from a narrow band of countries — Morocco, Canada, Russia and Belarus — and UK farmers are sitting on a supply chain that has more fault lines than many would care to admit.
What This Means for Farmers
For working farmers, this isn’t an abstract geopolitics lecture — it hits the bottom line fast. Andersons data shows agricultural input inflation running at 7.6% annually as of March 2026, comfortably above the 3.0% general inflation rate and the 3.2% food inflation figure. Meanwhile, farm output prices have fallen 6.5% year-on-year. That’s a genuine cost-of-farming squeeze, not just a temporary blip.
Nitrogen fertilisers are tightly tethered to global gas prices, a lesson British farmers learned brutally after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drove energy costs to extraordinary levels. The current Iran-linked tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are a reminder that the same shock could arrive again at any moment. The report notes that much of the world’s fertiliser supply passes through narrow maritime chokepoints including the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz — routes where military activity or political brinkmanship can rapidly translate into delayed shipments and higher costs for British farmers.
The UK has no meaningful domestic reserves of phosphate or potash, making it entirely dependent on imports routed through those same contested passages. That isn’t a manageable risk — it’s a structural vulnerability that sits at the heart of modern food production. Farmers who planned their input budgets in autumn may already be facing a very different cost picture by spring drilling. The report’s authors are importantly saying the sector has been building on sand, and it’s time that was faced honestly.
What Needs to Happen Now
The report stops short of prescribing specific policy remedies, but the direction of travel is clear: the UK needs to reduce its exposure to these concentrated supply chains, whether through domestic production capacity, strategic reserves of key nutrients, or greater diversity in sourcing. That will require investment decisions and government commitment that haven’t been forthcoming so far.
In the meantime, farmers should be reviewing their fertiliser purchasing strategies, locking in supply where possible and testing soil rigorously to ensure every kilogram applied is doing its job. Waste here is expensive in a way it hasn’t been for a generation. The report also raises questions that policymakers cannot keep sidestepping — about strategic stockpiling, about support for domestic production, and about how much longer the UK’s food security can be taken for granted while supply routes remain this exposed.
For arable and livestock producers alike, fertiliser isn’t a line item — it’s the foundation of yields and grass growth. If that foundation is this fragile, it demands a serious national conversation, not just another industry report that gets filed away.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the UK so exposed to fertiliser shocks?
The UK imports more than three times the fertiliser it produces domestically, with no meaningful reserves of phosphate or potash. Supply chains rely on a handful of countries and narrow shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, making disruption translate rapidly into price spikes on British farms.
How much are fertiliser costs affecting UK farm incomes?
According to Andersons, agricultural input inflation reached 7.6% annually by March 2026, while farm output prices fell 6.5% year-on-year. The resulting cost squeeze is putting serious pressure on farm margins across arable and livestock sectors.
What does the report recommend?
The report, authored by Antony So and Professor Tim Lang, identifies three pressure points — uneven global supply, corporate concentration, and vulnerable shipping routes — and calls for action to reduce the UK’s structural dependency on imported fertilisers through greater diversity of supply, domestic capacity or strategic reserves.
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